NFL WEEK 16 PICKS …trickier than it seems

NFL WEEK 16 PICKS

Things are getting trickier to pick.  Early on in any season it’s brawn and just plain old wanting to win that fuels the competitiveness. Yes, everything counts towards a playoff spot but right about now things get complicated because getting there can sit in the balance with who loses to whom as important as who wins against who.  This week there are only 3 games that don’t have playoff implications: Browns & Jets, Titans & Jaguars, and the Buccaneers & Rams.  You can find the ins & outs on line but you have to be a mathematician to figure that shit out… which I’m not, having dropped math in Grade 9 … cause you could in those days 🙂

My selfish fears this week are that the power will go out at 1pm with this southern Ontario ice storm … thank you Texas, or that the only games available for viewing will be a combo of the 3 games that really don’t matter.

Last week: 9 and 7

Year totals: 130 and 94

Miami Dolphins over Buffalo Bills

Beyond my oft-expressed hatred of Buffalo, statistically these two are well matched.  Miami might have to have their skates on to play in this weather and sitting in that open venue in Buffalo today won’t be an easy thing but Miami has beaten stiffer competition both on and off the road.

Carolina over New Orleans Saints

Carolina has not lost at home since Week 1 and the New Orleans road game has room for improvement.  They’re as much as tied for the NFC South and this is Newton’s chance to really show us what he’s got … or to go home with a towel on his head.  Who would choose to do that?

Dallas Cowboys over Washington

The disruptive drama that is the Redskins continues.  Dallas needs this game and they’ll be coming to Washington to get it.  The home team here left the building some time ago and despite their renewed efforts with Cousins, it’s still a case of too little too late.

St. Louis over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

St. Louis sits at the bottom of the NFC West and Tampa’s not sitting much better over in the NFC South, which is why this game is one of the no one cares games. St. Louis runs very hot and cold but one really does have to give them the home team advantage.

New York Jets over Cleveland Browns

(Another change the channel game)  Cleveland is very capable of losing by mere points and at the same time have scored 100 more points than the Jets for the season.  Defensively they’re pretty close. I’m taking the Jets because they’re very capable of pulling an unlikely upset out of their pockets.  They’re minimally favored at home and because that’s all this game has to offer … I’ll take it.

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Based on the Kansas D, I’m going with them.  Do think though that it’ll be a hard fought game … Indy’s not going to lay down and take it.

Cincinnati Bengals over Minnesota

I like Cincie and I like them more at home.  Peterson is reported to being playing for the Vikings but it’s their D that’s the problem, and they’re not, or haven’t been, 2 in a row winners.  Cincie is finishing the season with 2 home games and the home crowd should carry them the distance they need to go.

Denver Broncos over Houston Texans

Denver does throw a shoe on occasion and ends up on the wrong end of an upset … but to Houston for cripes sake?

Jacksonville over Tennessee

Not a question of who’s better, but one of who’s worse.  This is the kind of game that will fuck up your pick card.  Taking Jax @ home just because I have to pick someone to win.

Seattle Seahawks over Arizona

The noise machine that is Seattle at home should kick into gear … I think I can hear them now … from here.  This is the first of Seattle’s season ending home game schedule and Arizona might want to this game but they’re not going to get it.

Detroit Lions over the New York Giants

Stafford has just been declared the most undisciplined QB in the league… and the Lions as out of control as a whole for their often own play ending penalties and questionable coaching plays.  Oh, the Motor City, every one’s a critic.  But it’s The Giants for Christmas sake.

San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders

These 2 are at the bottom and the bottom bottom of the AFC West. San Diego should still be up over their surprise win (I was surprised) in Denver last week.

Green Bay Packers over Pittsburgh Steelers

The answer to will he or won’t he play is that he won’t.  Still taking Green Bay @ home.

Baltimore over New England

New England has been struggling of late and they struggle more on the road.  Their wins in December have been by points against both Houston and Cleveland, which are not powerhouse teams to begin with.  Gronkowski is missed, no doubt about that.  Baltimore does the same thing points wise the key here is that they score less but they stop more.

Philly over Chicago

Philly wants and needs this and Chicago wants and needs this. Chicago can win, and has won on the road but they are more inclined to lose traveling.  Philly is favored here by the standard 3-point home advantage gift … and sometimes that’s all you need to get it done.  Hopefully that’s what they’ll do.

San Francisco 49rs over Atlanta

Will San Francisco lose = no.  Will they win by 12 = no.  I’m just putting that out there.

Tight Pants and Leather Balls

 

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NFL WEEK 15 PICKS AND PANS AND PHOTOBOMBS

NFL WEEK 15 PICKS PANS AND PHOTOBOMBS

I didn’t watch Oprah last Sunday night – I watched the Saints cream Carolina. It was worth it.

Last week 11-5

Season 121-87

Atlanta over Washington

(The pick if one had a set of balls would be Washington over Atlanta.)  RG111 is benched, Cousins is starting and Mom (Shanahan) and Dad (The Team Owner) are in that fighting stage before their divorce.  This phase is most upsetting for the Kids (The Team).  Mom says Dad made him make RG111 go out to play last season even though the other kids wanted to bust his knee right off his leg.  This is a shit show from locker room to field.  Still, I’ll take Atlanta.

San Francisco over Tampa Bay

Tampa has done better over the last few weeks but the combo of Kaepernick and the 49rs offense should be able to hold them at bay (couldn’t help that one).

Seattle Seahawks over New York Giants

Seattle’s loss to San Fran last week might still be stinging Russell Wilson and his merry bunch of men.  The Giants are capable of messing up on the road AND at home.

Cleveland Browns over Chicago Bears

Giving Cleveland the home advantage on this one.  Chicago has had some trouble on the road and even though that’s not a real good reason to suggest any team should win or lose, sometimes it’s just enough.

Indianapolis Colts over Houston Texans

Yeah…nuff said.

Jacksonville over Buffalo

Jacksonville at home … Buffalo not at home.  The Jaguars have waited pretty far into the season to start pulling it out of the crack of their ass … and I hope that there’s more stuck up there.

Miami Dolphins over New England

I see that the odds makers have favored New England by a much more realistic spread this time out – 2.5 instead of 11.5.  The question on everyone’s mind of course is how much will Gronkowski be missed by Brady?  And can they do it without him.  I like Miami.

Philly over Minnesota

Minnesota is at home but Peterson and Gerhart are hurting.  Philly has been burning up fields lately and there’s no real reason to not suspect they’ll do the same in Minnesota this week.

Carolina Panthers over the New York Jets

Carolina’s Cam wore the towel before their loss to New Orleans was finalized.  (I don’t know why he does this but it looks ridiculous.) They’ll be eager to redeem themselves before a hometown crowd and this should be a grind out win for the Panthers against the all over the place but consistently shitty on the road Jets.

Kansas City over Oakland Raiders

There is no known reason why Kansas cannot win this game.  That’s all I’ve got.

Arizona Cardinals over Tennessee Titans

Arizona wants this win in the worst way … the way that means they’ll do whatever it takes to get it.

New Orleans Saints over St. Louis Rams

St. Louis will have to overrun the Saints defensive line (unlikely) and shut down Brees’ air play … not to be confused with air balls (also unlikely).  Not the same thing at all.  Although this might seem like a sure thing it’s more likely to be a hard fought win … but one for The Saints.

Dallas Cowboys over Green Bay Packers

Green Bay’s Rodgers will still be photo bombing on the sidelines and Dallas at home should be able to wrap this one up as a win.

Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers Photobombing

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals

Statistically the Bengals should take the Steelers, but emotions suggest that Pittsburgh doesn’t want to finish their division closer to the bottom than the top.  Expect a hardscrabble fight to the finish and it’s anyone’s game – hopefully it’ll belong to the Steelers.

Detroit Lions over Baltimore Ravens

Detroit for some reason is not a team I get to watch more than once (maybe twice) a season here in Ontario, and that being mid-day on American Thanksgiving.  That this is the Monday Night game is a bonus …that it’s the Monday Night game is a pain in my Tuesday morning.  Baltimore has won their last 3 on their own home field but of their total wins this season only one was an away game in Miami.  Detroit can take this game on home field. They score more and let less in which when you dumb the whole thing down is in fact the magic formula.

Tight Pants & Leather Balls

NFL Week 13 … the redemption

NFL WEEK 13 …. The redemption

…for me anyway.  American Thanksgiving was very good to me giving me 3 for 3 in the win category.  Did wish however that they’d stop showing the big birds getting loaded into the rustic truck on their happy way to getting cooked and carved.  Enough already… wait, can I have gravy on that?

Let’s begin:

Indy over Tennessee

Indy squeaked out a win over Tennessee 2 weeks ago.  They should be able to do it again and more so at home.

Denver over Kansas

(crazy didn’t quite cut it last week for Peyton) Denver took Kansas by 10 points 2 weeks ago. They’re tied for the AFC West, they both want it but Denver is the better team.

Cleveland over Jacksonville

Cleveland at home.  I don’t even want to see this game.

Carolina over Tampa

Carolina D should brick wall low scoring Tampa Bay even with the Buccaneer’s improved play over the last few weeks.

Chicago over Minnesota

This is a must win over Minnesota and hopefully the entire team has been practicing visualization where they can see themselves pulling this one out of the cracks of each other’s butts.  Yes, Adrian Peterson is doing his thing but he can’t play the whole game by himself.  Maybe he’ll just get tired…. And stop running.

Arizona over Philly

Philly has let me down repeatedly and are fast becoming my new Buffalo.

New York Jets over Miami

Miami has been known to falter on the road and in Divisional matchups.  The Jets are at home where it will hopefully be too cold for Miami to keep hold of the ball.  Predict this to be a ground fight.

Buffalo over Atlanta

(Philly being my new Buffalo gives me the option to take Buffalo) Also this is here in Toronto and we can see Buffalo on a clear day so technically this is a home game for them.  Buffalo outplays Atlanta statistically so I’m taking them and as God is my Witness….

San Francisco over St. Louis

Can St. Louis penetrate the San Fran defensive line?  We’ll see.  It’s not like Kaepernick throws it much.  This will be a tough win for San Fran …. But I think, I think, I think they can do it.

New England over Houston

Brady can throw a ball, we’ve got to give him that.  Houston winning is an unlikely upset.

San Diego over Cincinnati

Cinci is at the top of their Division right now above both Pittsburgh and Baltimore … I find that odd in a strictly esoteric kind of way. This will come down to the Cincinnati D line because compared to San Diego they just let less shit happen … but usually at home, where they’re not for this game.  I’m taking San Diego at home.

Washington over the New York Giants

Where one sucks the other is better and with the Giants favored by 1 with most odds makers, it’s either’s game to take. If RG111 has recovered from his nut busting episode from last week, and he’s still pissed off about some people bashing his Dad RG11 and he can carry that into the game (that’s a lot of “ifs”) then … I’m taking Washington.

RG111 shot to the nuts

The Anatomy of a Nut Shot

New Orleans over Seattle

Seattle has to lose at home eventually.  I’m leaving it there.

NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Denver vs New England

Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady NFL Sunday Night

If I thought …and I do mean IF I thought, Tom Brady could in fact play an entire game with his Dexter Game Face on, then that’d really be something to watch.  A real clash of legendary QB’s.  I’d stay up late on a Sunday night, I’d tape Boardwalk Empire, turn off all the ringers, get a glass of red and settle in to watch the on-field fight.  But I don’t think that, and I do think that this Sunday Night Football Promo

Tom Brady as Dexter

is overly optimistic at best.  In fact, as a Dexter fan I’d say it’d make me think Tom and his Patriots are not going to come out on top because the Dexter Finale was freaking lame. Dexter didn’t win — he lost everything.

As a side note — if Brady & company played the whole game against Carolina as they did in the final minute then maybe they’d have won.  That last call was …. odd.  We’ll leave it at that but the reasoning that it’s not a penalty because the NE receiver didn’t have a chance of catching the ball ….? No, I guess if he’s being held then he’d have no chance but he has no chance because he’s being held.  Tom was pissed.  If NE has any chance against Denver then he’s going to have to stay pissed, show up pissed, and play pissed.  For the whole game.

TP&LB

NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

If the NFL logos tie wasn’t bad enough we can now proudly say that Toronto’s Mayor has been effectively banned from a Canadian Football League game, and asked not to wear their jerseys.  Guess he could just stay home and eat p***y… seeing as how there’s plenty enough of that there.  Good grief.  But it’s Week 11 and time’s running out for teams to make the playoffs.  As often happens in the NFL, there are weak divisions and strong divisions.  It doesn’t make it easier to pick a game but it does mean that weaker teams make it to the Super Bowl and can go up against a powerhouse.  This makes for a crap final.  I don’t want to go there.

Going into WEEK 11 @ 87-60 with 8 correct last week.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Taking Tampa.  Atlanta has not won on the road yet and disappointment comes from elevated expectations of others behavior.  Therefore I do not expect them to do anything different than they already have.

The New York Jets over Buffalo

I don’t care where they play.  I’m not taking Buffalo

Detroit over Pittsburgh

All things considered and if Detroit is firing on all cylinders – they should run right over Pittsburgh.

Washington over Philly

Philly is playing better and have won their last games but those wins come over teams that are less than stellar.  Washington plays with heart and they don’t give up easily. Taking Washington

Chicago over Baltimore

If the stars align then Chicago’s ability to score should outweigh their sieve of a defensive line.  Beyond that Baltimore is quickly becoming my new Buffalo.

Cincinnati over Cleveland

Cinci is due for a win and sometimes it’s as simple as that.

Oakland over Houston

These two are equally bad – therefore I am taking the best of the badness that they collectively are and giving it to Oakland.

Arizona over Jacksonville

The only reason that Jax won that game last week is that Tennessee shit their own bed, changed the sheets at half time, and then proceeded to soil it again.  Jacksonville may be buoyed by the win but Arizona is still a better team statistically and (should) can beat them.

San Diego over Miami

San Diego for all intents and purposes is marginally better than the Fish.  Perhaps Miami can capture an honorary win with honorary players.  Take San Diego.

Seattle over Minnesota

Seattle is better at home, and Minnesota has only won at home (giving them the London game). Which they’re not.  They’re on the road in Seattle.  Case closed.

New Orleans over San Francisco

If you take a look at their win records you’ll find that yes they’ve won games but neither has shellacked a really strong contender.  San Fran struggled somewhat against Carolina last week so I’m giving this to experience and the home team.  Take New Orleans.

New York Giants over Green Bay

Giants and Eli have rallied over last few weeks while Green Bay has floundered.  This is a must win for the Giants.

Denver over Kansas

Denver has one loss this season and Kansas is sitting on Peyton’s undefeated throne.  This, I’m sure displeases him greatly.  Denver is at home and with the pissed off/wicked smart combo under a Mile High Stadium Taurus Full Moon that is Manning tonight … well I wouldn’t mess with him.  Take Denver.

New England over Carolina

Tom Brady doesn’t have nearly the edginess of Peyton’s game face but he surely doesn’t want to lose to a still wet behind the ears Cam Newton.

MAYBE TOM

 tom brady crying

could do less of this and more of this

peyton manning mad facewhich will result in more of this

cam newton with towel on headTake New England

TP&LB

 

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 8

NFL PICKS WEEK 8

Win Loss = 60-47

This is one of those weeks that should be easy because most games seem so obvious.  That’s a big red flag.  Waving.  One side says “pick me”, the other says, “tricked you, you suck.

That being said, I’m going in anyway:

(picks in pink)

 

Carolina over Tampa Bay

Thursday Night – got that one.

San Fran over Jacksonville in London

British people will still not get American Football after this one.  Ex-Pats might have some ‘splaining to do.

Detroit over Dallas

Megatron and Reggie Bush have their work cut out for them on home field.  Dallas can be a trial for many teams.  Actually in the pool I’m in I don’t have the balls to pick this one so I’m boxing it.  It should be a fight – maybe a few fist fights as well.

Philly over the New York Giants

Both unpredictable teams that are never consistently off or on – taking Philly at home and hopefully Vick propelled.

Kansas City Chiefs over Cleveland

It’s hard to get past the Kansas D even though they’ve used it to stop less than stellar opponents.  Cleveland is going to have to try really really hard.

New Orleans Saints over Buffalo

You know I’m taking the Saints

New England over Miami

This is a long time rivalry, Miami has trouble against the Patriots and Tom Brady, despite that fact that he’s just bought a very cool New York condo, is probably supremely pissed about losing to the Jets last week.

Cincinnati over The New York Jets

Cinci hasn’t lost at home yet and The Jets have managed to lose every other game – on that scientifically gathered data, I’m taking The Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers over Oakland Raiders

Both AFC both need the game – Pittsburgh always needs it more. Game should be low scoring and Oakland can win at home against a crap team.  Pittsburgh has been improving – AKA – getting their shit game together – of late so on the winds of possibility it’s the Steelers

Denver Broncos over Washington

Will Peyton Manning lose to another rookie QB (compared to him they’re almost all rookies)?  Two weeks in a row?  At home?  I think not.

Atlanta Falcons over Arizona Cardinals

Even a psychic couldn’t pick this one with any certainty.  A psycho perhaps, but I am neither, certainly not on the same day anyway.

Green Bay Packers over Minnesota

Minnesota have lost the plot.  I’ll leave it at that.

Seattle Seahawks over St. Louis Rams

Seattle is just a better team.  Period. I hope.

NFL WEEK 7 … who will win?

NFL WEEK 7 PICKS TO WIN

WEEK 7

Coming into Week 7 @ 52-40

Yes, I let emotion play into that Week 7 Thursday Night pick when I took Arizona over Seattle – won’t let that happen again.  Now in the grand scheme of things I’m one back.  What’s at stake here is a set of Zildjian’s … hi hats or crash or something else loud.  I’ve got my eye on a lovely tablet.  As they say, I’m not playing.  I want my tablet.  Chili in the slow cooker, laundry done, and I’m ready to watch.

New England over the Jets

These two are actually quite well matched and it should be a good game but I’m going with Brady on this one.

San Diego over Jacksonville

Jax still struggling but this could be one of those games you should have boxed but you didn’t because how could San Diego lose?

Kansas City Chiefs over Houston

Schaub is out for Houston and Kansas has a killer D.

Cincinnati Bengals over Detroit

Out on a limb here but Calvin Johnson is “probable” whatever the fuck that means in the real world.  Okay, I know what it means but even when he does play he’s either on or he’s off.  Some games he’s neither.

Miami Dolphins over Buffalo

I would take whoever else there was against Buffalo any day (we’ve been over this before). But I like the Dolphins.  They’re at home.  Ricky would take them.  I think.

Chicago over Washington

Days gone by Washington @ home would be a lock but RG111 is still getting comfortable on that knee (and I don’t blame him).  Chicago is a tough team.

Philly over Dallas

Dallas has some injuries – DeMarcus and DeMarco, Philly’s Vick is questionable.  If Vick is in then Dallas might just spend too much time trying to kick the shit out of him instead of playing.  Big Daddy Jones will be watching though…

Carolina Panthers over St. Louis Rams

Carolina has a good D and Cam Newton (when he doesn’t have that ridiculous towel on his head) seems to be getting back to business.

Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay

Just because

Tennessee Titans over San Francisco

Kaepernick is getting back up to speed and he’s throwing the ball well.  Tennessee isn’t going to give up this game lightly.

Green Bay over Cleveland Browns

Even though Green Bay has some injured players they haven’t lost at home yet.  Sometimes it’s that simple.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore

It could be argued that any team needs any game at any time, but the Steelers need this game.  Really need it.  Defensively both are pretty tough so maybe they should just stay in their own ends and kick the ball back and forth.

Denver Broncos over Indy

The Manning/Luck battle returns to the turf.  Apparently both fathers QB’d … Lucks actually for Indy.  I should know where Manning’s played but I don’t care to find out or to remember.  That was then and this is now.  There is mucho hype surrounding this game because of the return of Peyton to Indianapolis.  But isn’t this a little like going back and sleeping with your ex.  It’s not like it’s a surprise, you know it’s going to end badly for one, and everyone wants to know the details.  Can you imagine how much the networks are charging for advertising during this game?  You can show me a hundred times; I’m still not buying a fucking truck pushed by Denis Leary or Sam Elliot. In fact I’m not buying a truck period.  Show me something else… or show me the freaking game. Did I say I was taking Denver?

Monday night letdown

Taking the New York Giants over Minnesota with hopes Little Manning can play like Big Manning and he and his team can get the job done.

TP&LB