NFL WEEK 17 PICKS …. the show’s not over yet

Week 17 NFL … the show’s not over yet.

Lot’s of action still in the league as teams jockey for position in the playoffs.  Point in case is that there is not one NFC division decided.

Last week: 9-7

Season: 139-101

Carolina Panthers over Atlanta

Despite Cam Newton’s lesser show on the road he can still get it done, even if he has to run the ball himself, which he does.  Atlanta can’t get to there from there because the Panther D won’t let them.

Tennessee Titans over Houston Texans

Houston can’t score their way out of wet paper bag and even though the Titans aren’t top notch they should be able to hand Houston a loss and keep the Texans at the absolute bottom of the league.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland

Pittsburgh needs this game to stay in the race for anything.  They’ll get it as Cleveland’s record against them in Pittsburgh is a no go.  However Pittsburgh also needs the cards to fall in all the correct win loss categories throughout the league for it to actually mean anything for them.  Still, they’re not just going to give it up.

New York Giants over Washington

Washington does not have a hope in hell of making the playoffs, how well they play may be determined by how determined Cousins is to keep the play spotlight on himself.  Manning would like to end this less than stellar season with a win at home.

Cincinnati Bengals over Baltimore Ravens

Actually I just like the Bengals. They have more to gain with a win over Baltimore as they’re playing for the AFC’s No. 2 Seed; Baltimore is just trying to get an invite to the dance.   Actually, I just like the Bengals.  Did I say that already?

Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars

Indy has already clinched the Division but I don’t expect that will stop them from handing the Jaguars their final loss of the season.

Miami Dolphins over the New York Jets

This should be a hard fought battle.  Miami needs the win and Baltimore to lose to get in on the post-season fun.  The Jets don’t do so well on the road…

Minnesota Vikings over Detroit Lions

Despite the Lions dismal display of on and off field team togetherness they’ve somehow managed to hold on to…oh, they haven’t held on to anything.  Minnesota may be without their go to guy in Peterson and Detroit’s Megatron is questionable (at point of writing) but both of these teams have shown the ability to pull a surprise win or loss out of their collective jockstraps.  Taking Minnesota at home.

Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears

Rodgers returns to the fold and the question is whether he’ll play cautiously (a la RG111) or pull out all the stops.  I’m thinking he’s gonna give it all he’s got and all he’s got will be enough to stop The Bears in their own corner of the forest.

New England Patriots over Buffalo

This is down to a battle of the QB’s.  Brady can do it and I really hope that he doesn’t wait to the last 2 minutes of the game to actually get it done.

New Orleans Saints over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans wants and needs this game and Tampa is beyond all help.  Tampa should just let their hair down and play like they’re fighting it out in the field behind the school to see who gets to date the Head Cheerleader.  That’d be a good game to watch.

Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders

Good night Oakland.  Thank goodness this isn’t the Sunday Night game.  Doing laundry would be more entertaining.

San Diego Chargers over Kansas City

Even though Kansas looks better on paper and can win on the road, their play of late hasn’t been what we’d expect.  San Diego is hot these last few games and the fire’s not going out just yet.

It’ll be a well-fought battle to the last seconds of the game.

Seattle Seahawks over St. Louis

Seattle is still smarting from their loss at home last week to Arizona, but not enough to lose focus and lose this one as well.

Dallas Cowboys over Philly

It’s the end of the season and I don’t have anything to lose with taking the hapless Cowboys over Philly.  I’m not a Romo fan neither do I subscribe to the premise that a team is based solely on the strength of one man. Dallas at home it is.

Tight Pants & Leather Balls

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NFL WEEK 16 PICKS …trickier than it seems

NFL WEEK 16 PICKS

Things are getting trickier to pick.  Early on in any season it’s brawn and just plain old wanting to win that fuels the competitiveness. Yes, everything counts towards a playoff spot but right about now things get complicated because getting there can sit in the balance with who loses to whom as important as who wins against who.  This week there are only 3 games that don’t have playoff implications: Browns & Jets, Titans & Jaguars, and the Buccaneers & Rams.  You can find the ins & outs on line but you have to be a mathematician to figure that shit out… which I’m not, having dropped math in Grade 9 … cause you could in those days 🙂

My selfish fears this week are that the power will go out at 1pm with this southern Ontario ice storm … thank you Texas, or that the only games available for viewing will be a combo of the 3 games that really don’t matter.

Last week: 9 and 7

Year totals: 130 and 94

Miami Dolphins over Buffalo Bills

Beyond my oft-expressed hatred of Buffalo, statistically these two are well matched.  Miami might have to have their skates on to play in this weather and sitting in that open venue in Buffalo today won’t be an easy thing but Miami has beaten stiffer competition both on and off the road.

Carolina over New Orleans Saints

Carolina has not lost at home since Week 1 and the New Orleans road game has room for improvement.  They’re as much as tied for the NFC South and this is Newton’s chance to really show us what he’s got … or to go home with a towel on his head.  Who would choose to do that?

Dallas Cowboys over Washington

The disruptive drama that is the Redskins continues.  Dallas needs this game and they’ll be coming to Washington to get it.  The home team here left the building some time ago and despite their renewed efforts with Cousins, it’s still a case of too little too late.

St. Louis over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

St. Louis sits at the bottom of the NFC West and Tampa’s not sitting much better over in the NFC South, which is why this game is one of the no one cares games. St. Louis runs very hot and cold but one really does have to give them the home team advantage.

New York Jets over Cleveland Browns

(Another change the channel game)  Cleveland is very capable of losing by mere points and at the same time have scored 100 more points than the Jets for the season.  Defensively they’re pretty close. I’m taking the Jets because they’re very capable of pulling an unlikely upset out of their pockets.  They’re minimally favored at home and because that’s all this game has to offer … I’ll take it.

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Based on the Kansas D, I’m going with them.  Do think though that it’ll be a hard fought game … Indy’s not going to lay down and take it.

Cincinnati Bengals over Minnesota

I like Cincie and I like them more at home.  Peterson is reported to being playing for the Vikings but it’s their D that’s the problem, and they’re not, or haven’t been, 2 in a row winners.  Cincie is finishing the season with 2 home games and the home crowd should carry them the distance they need to go.

Denver Broncos over Houston Texans

Denver does throw a shoe on occasion and ends up on the wrong end of an upset … but to Houston for cripes sake?

Jacksonville over Tennessee

Not a question of who’s better, but one of who’s worse.  This is the kind of game that will fuck up your pick card.  Taking Jax @ home just because I have to pick someone to win.

Seattle Seahawks over Arizona

The noise machine that is Seattle at home should kick into gear … I think I can hear them now … from here.  This is the first of Seattle’s season ending home game schedule and Arizona might want to this game but they’re not going to get it.

Detroit Lions over the New York Giants

Stafford has just been declared the most undisciplined QB in the league… and the Lions as out of control as a whole for their often own play ending penalties and questionable coaching plays.  Oh, the Motor City, every one’s a critic.  But it’s The Giants for Christmas sake.

San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders

These 2 are at the bottom and the bottom bottom of the AFC West. San Diego should still be up over their surprise win (I was surprised) in Denver last week.

Green Bay Packers over Pittsburgh Steelers

The answer to will he or won’t he play is that he won’t.  Still taking Green Bay @ home.

Baltimore over New England

New England has been struggling of late and they struggle more on the road.  Their wins in December have been by points against both Houston and Cleveland, which are not powerhouse teams to begin with.  Gronkowski is missed, no doubt about that.  Baltimore does the same thing points wise the key here is that they score less but they stop more.

Philly over Chicago

Philly wants and needs this and Chicago wants and needs this. Chicago can win, and has won on the road but they are more inclined to lose traveling.  Philly is favored here by the standard 3-point home advantage gift … and sometimes that’s all you need to get it done.  Hopefully that’s what they’ll do.

San Francisco 49rs over Atlanta

Will San Francisco lose = no.  Will they win by 12 = no.  I’m just putting that out there.

Tight Pants and Leather Balls

 

NFL Week 13 … the redemption

NFL WEEK 13 …. The redemption

…for me anyway.  American Thanksgiving was very good to me giving me 3 for 3 in the win category.  Did wish however that they’d stop showing the big birds getting loaded into the rustic truck on their happy way to getting cooked and carved.  Enough already… wait, can I have gravy on that?

Let’s begin:

Indy over Tennessee

Indy squeaked out a win over Tennessee 2 weeks ago.  They should be able to do it again and more so at home.

Denver over Kansas

(crazy didn’t quite cut it last week for Peyton) Denver took Kansas by 10 points 2 weeks ago. They’re tied for the AFC West, they both want it but Denver is the better team.

Cleveland over Jacksonville

Cleveland at home.  I don’t even want to see this game.

Carolina over Tampa

Carolina D should brick wall low scoring Tampa Bay even with the Buccaneer’s improved play over the last few weeks.

Chicago over Minnesota

This is a must win over Minnesota and hopefully the entire team has been practicing visualization where they can see themselves pulling this one out of the cracks of each other’s butts.  Yes, Adrian Peterson is doing his thing but he can’t play the whole game by himself.  Maybe he’ll just get tired…. And stop running.

Arizona over Philly

Philly has let me down repeatedly and are fast becoming my new Buffalo.

New York Jets over Miami

Miami has been known to falter on the road and in Divisional matchups.  The Jets are at home where it will hopefully be too cold for Miami to keep hold of the ball.  Predict this to be a ground fight.

Buffalo over Atlanta

(Philly being my new Buffalo gives me the option to take Buffalo) Also this is here in Toronto and we can see Buffalo on a clear day so technically this is a home game for them.  Buffalo outplays Atlanta statistically so I’m taking them and as God is my Witness….

San Francisco over St. Louis

Can St. Louis penetrate the San Fran defensive line?  We’ll see.  It’s not like Kaepernick throws it much.  This will be a tough win for San Fran …. But I think, I think, I think they can do it.

New England over Houston

Brady can throw a ball, we’ve got to give him that.  Houston winning is an unlikely upset.

San Diego over Cincinnati

Cinci is at the top of their Division right now above both Pittsburgh and Baltimore … I find that odd in a strictly esoteric kind of way. This will come down to the Cincinnati D line because compared to San Diego they just let less shit happen … but usually at home, where they’re not for this game.  I’m taking San Diego at home.

Washington over the New York Giants

Where one sucks the other is better and with the Giants favored by 1 with most odds makers, it’s either’s game to take. If RG111 has recovered from his nut busting episode from last week, and he’s still pissed off about some people bashing his Dad RG11 and he can carry that into the game (that’s a lot of “ifs”) then … I’m taking Washington.

RG111 shot to the nuts

The Anatomy of a Nut Shot

New Orleans over Seattle

Seattle has to lose at home eventually.  I’m leaving it there.

NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

If the NFL logos tie wasn’t bad enough we can now proudly say that Toronto’s Mayor has been effectively banned from a Canadian Football League game, and asked not to wear their jerseys.  Guess he could just stay home and eat p***y… seeing as how there’s plenty enough of that there.  Good grief.  But it’s Week 11 and time’s running out for teams to make the playoffs.  As often happens in the NFL, there are weak divisions and strong divisions.  It doesn’t make it easier to pick a game but it does mean that weaker teams make it to the Super Bowl and can go up against a powerhouse.  This makes for a crap final.  I don’t want to go there.

Going into WEEK 11 @ 87-60 with 8 correct last week.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Taking Tampa.  Atlanta has not won on the road yet and disappointment comes from elevated expectations of others behavior.  Therefore I do not expect them to do anything different than they already have.

The New York Jets over Buffalo

I don’t care where they play.  I’m not taking Buffalo

Detroit over Pittsburgh

All things considered and if Detroit is firing on all cylinders – they should run right over Pittsburgh.

Washington over Philly

Philly is playing better and have won their last games but those wins come over teams that are less than stellar.  Washington plays with heart and they don’t give up easily. Taking Washington

Chicago over Baltimore

If the stars align then Chicago’s ability to score should outweigh their sieve of a defensive line.  Beyond that Baltimore is quickly becoming my new Buffalo.

Cincinnati over Cleveland

Cinci is due for a win and sometimes it’s as simple as that.

Oakland over Houston

These two are equally bad – therefore I am taking the best of the badness that they collectively are and giving it to Oakland.

Arizona over Jacksonville

The only reason that Jax won that game last week is that Tennessee shit their own bed, changed the sheets at half time, and then proceeded to soil it again.  Jacksonville may be buoyed by the win but Arizona is still a better team statistically and (should) can beat them.

San Diego over Miami

San Diego for all intents and purposes is marginally better than the Fish.  Perhaps Miami can capture an honorary win with honorary players.  Take San Diego.

Seattle over Minnesota

Seattle is better at home, and Minnesota has only won at home (giving them the London game). Which they’re not.  They’re on the road in Seattle.  Case closed.

New Orleans over San Francisco

If you take a look at their win records you’ll find that yes they’ve won games but neither has shellacked a really strong contender.  San Fran struggled somewhat against Carolina last week so I’m giving this to experience and the home team.  Take New Orleans.

New York Giants over Green Bay

Giants and Eli have rallied over last few weeks while Green Bay has floundered.  This is a must win for the Giants.

Denver over Kansas

Denver has one loss this season and Kansas is sitting on Peyton’s undefeated throne.  This, I’m sure displeases him greatly.  Denver is at home and with the pissed off/wicked smart combo under a Mile High Stadium Taurus Full Moon that is Manning tonight … well I wouldn’t mess with him.  Take Denver.

New England over Carolina

Tom Brady doesn’t have nearly the edginess of Peyton’s game face but he surely doesn’t want to lose to a still wet behind the ears Cam Newton.

MAYBE TOM

 tom brady crying

could do less of this and more of this

peyton manning mad facewhich will result in more of this

cam newton with towel on headTake New England

TP&LB

 

 

NFL WEEK 9 PICKS AND PANS

NFL WEEK 9 PICKS AND PANS

I know I’m late putting these up but in my own defence I haven’t even turned on the TV yet to watch a game and then I was doubly distracted by MikeMajor9’s post at his Toronto@home blog about the epidemic of men sending pics of their johnsons.  He’s very funny.

I know what you’re thinking – it’s easy to call a race when the horses have already left the gate…. but I did these two days ago and this season has proven that it doesn’t matter who’s winning at any point in any game.  The outcome is a mystery till the final whistle.

Win loss record is 70-50

I took Cincinnati in the Thursday game and Miami beat them by 2.

Carolina Panthers over Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta hasn’t won on the road yet and their D is dismal.  Carolina is improving or maybe Cam’s rediscovering his groove on the field.

Dallas Cowboys over Minnesota Vikings

Dallas should win this game – points wise For and Against they are almost complete opposites – maybe they’ll cancel each other out.

New York Jets over Saint Louis

Because I prefer the Jets.

St. Louis over Tennessee

Tennessee is one low scoring team.  You have to score, more than the other guys, to win a game.

Kansas City Chiefs over Buffalo

Kansas City, by their record, has a stellar D, Buffalo not so much.  Buffalo is a hurting team.  On a clear day I can see Buffalo across Lake Ontario, it doesn’t make me like them more.

Washington over San Diego Chargers

Washington is improving their game and RG111 is just so darned likeable.

Oakland over Philly

Philly is dismal.  End of story.

Seattle Seahawks over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Even though they seemed to struggle against St. Lo last week (were they just messing with us?) they are better at home, they do have a good D ….and Tampa hasn’t won a game yet.  It’s unlikely they’ll do that in Seattle.

Cleveland Browns over Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland lost to Baltimore in Week 2 and it’s anyone’s guess if that’ll happen again. Their win loss records are essentially the same.  Could be a shit show, could be a blow out… could be a game not even worth watching.  So, Cleveland at home it is.

New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers

Even though New England likes to dick with us all, this is still a meeting of two historically powerhouse QBs.  That they’re both a bit old and creaky now will probably do more to even the strategic play playing field, but I’m still taking Brady at home.

Indianapolis Colts over Houston

Indy is coming off a bye week and should be rested. Technically opposites stats wise (read here that the Colts’ record is basically all good and that Houston’s is not) it doesn’t promise to be a good, or exciting, or interesting game.  Will it be one of those Sunday Night Games that won’t keep you cranky on Monday cause you stayed up to watch it… probably.

Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears

Should be a no-brainer to pick Green Bay. Operative word “should”.

NFL PICKS WEEK 8

NFL PICKS WEEK 8

Win Loss = 60-47

This is one of those weeks that should be easy because most games seem so obvious.  That’s a big red flag.  Waving.  One side says “pick me”, the other says, “tricked you, you suck.

That being said, I’m going in anyway:

(picks in pink)

 

Carolina over Tampa Bay

Thursday Night – got that one.

San Fran over Jacksonville in London

British people will still not get American Football after this one.  Ex-Pats might have some ‘splaining to do.

Detroit over Dallas

Megatron and Reggie Bush have their work cut out for them on home field.  Dallas can be a trial for many teams.  Actually in the pool I’m in I don’t have the balls to pick this one so I’m boxing it.  It should be a fight – maybe a few fist fights as well.

Philly over the New York Giants

Both unpredictable teams that are never consistently off or on – taking Philly at home and hopefully Vick propelled.

Kansas City Chiefs over Cleveland

It’s hard to get past the Kansas D even though they’ve used it to stop less than stellar opponents.  Cleveland is going to have to try really really hard.

New Orleans Saints over Buffalo

You know I’m taking the Saints

New England over Miami

This is a long time rivalry, Miami has trouble against the Patriots and Tom Brady, despite that fact that he’s just bought a very cool New York condo, is probably supremely pissed about losing to the Jets last week.

Cincinnati over The New York Jets

Cinci hasn’t lost at home yet and The Jets have managed to lose every other game – on that scientifically gathered data, I’m taking The Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers over Oakland Raiders

Both AFC both need the game – Pittsburgh always needs it more. Game should be low scoring and Oakland can win at home against a crap team.  Pittsburgh has been improving – AKA – getting their shit game together – of late so on the winds of possibility it’s the Steelers

Denver Broncos over Washington

Will Peyton Manning lose to another rookie QB (compared to him they’re almost all rookies)?  Two weeks in a row?  At home?  I think not.

Atlanta Falcons over Arizona Cardinals

Even a psychic couldn’t pick this one with any certainty.  A psycho perhaps, but I am neither, certainly not on the same day anyway.

Green Bay Packers over Minnesota

Minnesota have lost the plot.  I’ll leave it at that.

Seattle Seahawks over St. Louis Rams

Seattle is just a better team.  Period. I hope.

NFL Thursday Night Carolina at Tampa Bay

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 Carolina Panters at Tampa Bay NFL

 

These two are weak where the other is strong and strong where the other is weak.  How do you pick something like that?  Cam Newton seems to be getting back to his previous season’s performance levels but reality is that neither team is that good — wins they’ve had (the few wins) have been against teams that are not power houses.  I’ll take Carolina and Cam and his head towel at home.

TP&LB