NFL WEEK 17 PICKS …. the show’s not over yet

Week 17 NFL … the show’s not over yet.

Lot’s of action still in the league as teams jockey for position in the playoffs.  Point in case is that there is not one NFC division decided.

Last week: 9-7

Season: 139-101

Carolina Panthers over Atlanta

Despite Cam Newton’s lesser show on the road he can still get it done, even if he has to run the ball himself, which he does.  Atlanta can’t get to there from there because the Panther D won’t let them.

Tennessee Titans over Houston Texans

Houston can’t score their way out of wet paper bag and even though the Titans aren’t top notch they should be able to hand Houston a loss and keep the Texans at the absolute bottom of the league.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland

Pittsburgh needs this game to stay in the race for anything.  They’ll get it as Cleveland’s record against them in Pittsburgh is a no go.  However Pittsburgh also needs the cards to fall in all the correct win loss categories throughout the league for it to actually mean anything for them.  Still, they’re not just going to give it up.

New York Giants over Washington

Washington does not have a hope in hell of making the playoffs, how well they play may be determined by how determined Cousins is to keep the play spotlight on himself.  Manning would like to end this less than stellar season with a win at home.

Cincinnati Bengals over Baltimore Ravens

Actually I just like the Bengals. They have more to gain with a win over Baltimore as they’re playing for the AFC’s No. 2 Seed; Baltimore is just trying to get an invite to the dance.   Actually, I just like the Bengals.  Did I say that already?

Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars

Indy has already clinched the Division but I don’t expect that will stop them from handing the Jaguars their final loss of the season.

Miami Dolphins over the New York Jets

This should be a hard fought battle.  Miami needs the win and Baltimore to lose to get in on the post-season fun.  The Jets don’t do so well on the road…

Minnesota Vikings over Detroit Lions

Despite the Lions dismal display of on and off field team togetherness they’ve somehow managed to hold on to…oh, they haven’t held on to anything.  Minnesota may be without their go to guy in Peterson and Detroit’s Megatron is questionable (at point of writing) but both of these teams have shown the ability to pull a surprise win or loss out of their collective jockstraps.  Taking Minnesota at home.

Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears

Rodgers returns to the fold and the question is whether he’ll play cautiously (a la RG111) or pull out all the stops.  I’m thinking he’s gonna give it all he’s got and all he’s got will be enough to stop The Bears in their own corner of the forest.

New England Patriots over Buffalo

This is down to a battle of the QB’s.  Brady can do it and I really hope that he doesn’t wait to the last 2 minutes of the game to actually get it done.

New Orleans Saints over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans wants and needs this game and Tampa is beyond all help.  Tampa should just let their hair down and play like they’re fighting it out in the field behind the school to see who gets to date the Head Cheerleader.  That’d be a good game to watch.

Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders

Good night Oakland.  Thank goodness this isn’t the Sunday Night game.  Doing laundry would be more entertaining.

San Diego Chargers over Kansas City

Even though Kansas looks better on paper and can win on the road, their play of late hasn’t been what we’d expect.  San Diego is hot these last few games and the fire’s not going out just yet.

It’ll be a well-fought battle to the last seconds of the game.

Seattle Seahawks over St. Louis

Seattle is still smarting from their loss at home last week to Arizona, but not enough to lose focus and lose this one as well.

Dallas Cowboys over Philly

It’s the end of the season and I don’t have anything to lose with taking the hapless Cowboys over Philly.  I’m not a Romo fan neither do I subscribe to the premise that a team is based solely on the strength of one man. Dallas at home it is.

Tight Pants & Leather Balls

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NFL WEEK 16 PICKS …trickier than it seems

NFL WEEK 16 PICKS

Things are getting trickier to pick.  Early on in any season it’s brawn and just plain old wanting to win that fuels the competitiveness. Yes, everything counts towards a playoff spot but right about now things get complicated because getting there can sit in the balance with who loses to whom as important as who wins against who.  This week there are only 3 games that don’t have playoff implications: Browns & Jets, Titans & Jaguars, and the Buccaneers & Rams.  You can find the ins & outs on line but you have to be a mathematician to figure that shit out… which I’m not, having dropped math in Grade 9 … cause you could in those days 🙂

My selfish fears this week are that the power will go out at 1pm with this southern Ontario ice storm … thank you Texas, or that the only games available for viewing will be a combo of the 3 games that really don’t matter.

Last week: 9 and 7

Year totals: 130 and 94

Miami Dolphins over Buffalo Bills

Beyond my oft-expressed hatred of Buffalo, statistically these two are well matched.  Miami might have to have their skates on to play in this weather and sitting in that open venue in Buffalo today won’t be an easy thing but Miami has beaten stiffer competition both on and off the road.

Carolina over New Orleans Saints

Carolina has not lost at home since Week 1 and the New Orleans road game has room for improvement.  They’re as much as tied for the NFC South and this is Newton’s chance to really show us what he’s got … or to go home with a towel on his head.  Who would choose to do that?

Dallas Cowboys over Washington

The disruptive drama that is the Redskins continues.  Dallas needs this game and they’ll be coming to Washington to get it.  The home team here left the building some time ago and despite their renewed efforts with Cousins, it’s still a case of too little too late.

St. Louis over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

St. Louis sits at the bottom of the NFC West and Tampa’s not sitting much better over in the NFC South, which is why this game is one of the no one cares games. St. Louis runs very hot and cold but one really does have to give them the home team advantage.

New York Jets over Cleveland Browns

(Another change the channel game)  Cleveland is very capable of losing by mere points and at the same time have scored 100 more points than the Jets for the season.  Defensively they’re pretty close. I’m taking the Jets because they’re very capable of pulling an unlikely upset out of their pockets.  They’re minimally favored at home and because that’s all this game has to offer … I’ll take it.

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Based on the Kansas D, I’m going with them.  Do think though that it’ll be a hard fought game … Indy’s not going to lay down and take it.

Cincinnati Bengals over Minnesota

I like Cincie and I like them more at home.  Peterson is reported to being playing for the Vikings but it’s their D that’s the problem, and they’re not, or haven’t been, 2 in a row winners.  Cincie is finishing the season with 2 home games and the home crowd should carry them the distance they need to go.

Denver Broncos over Houston Texans

Denver does throw a shoe on occasion and ends up on the wrong end of an upset … but to Houston for cripes sake?

Jacksonville over Tennessee

Not a question of who’s better, but one of who’s worse.  This is the kind of game that will fuck up your pick card.  Taking Jax @ home just because I have to pick someone to win.

Seattle Seahawks over Arizona

The noise machine that is Seattle at home should kick into gear … I think I can hear them now … from here.  This is the first of Seattle’s season ending home game schedule and Arizona might want to this game but they’re not going to get it.

Detroit Lions over the New York Giants

Stafford has just been declared the most undisciplined QB in the league… and the Lions as out of control as a whole for their often own play ending penalties and questionable coaching plays.  Oh, the Motor City, every one’s a critic.  But it’s The Giants for Christmas sake.

San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders

These 2 are at the bottom and the bottom bottom of the AFC West. San Diego should still be up over their surprise win (I was surprised) in Denver last week.

Green Bay Packers over Pittsburgh Steelers

The answer to will he or won’t he play is that he won’t.  Still taking Green Bay @ home.

Baltimore over New England

New England has been struggling of late and they struggle more on the road.  Their wins in December have been by points against both Houston and Cleveland, which are not powerhouse teams to begin with.  Gronkowski is missed, no doubt about that.  Baltimore does the same thing points wise the key here is that they score less but they stop more.

Philly over Chicago

Philly wants and needs this and Chicago wants and needs this. Chicago can win, and has won on the road but they are more inclined to lose traveling.  Philly is favored here by the standard 3-point home advantage gift … and sometimes that’s all you need to get it done.  Hopefully that’s what they’ll do.

San Francisco 49rs over Atlanta

Will San Francisco lose = no.  Will they win by 12 = no.  I’m just putting that out there.

Tight Pants and Leather Balls

 

NFL WEEK 15 PICKS AND PANS AND PHOTOBOMBS

NFL WEEK 15 PICKS PANS AND PHOTOBOMBS

I didn’t watch Oprah last Sunday night – I watched the Saints cream Carolina. It was worth it.

Last week 11-5

Season 121-87

Atlanta over Washington

(The pick if one had a set of balls would be Washington over Atlanta.)  RG111 is benched, Cousins is starting and Mom (Shanahan) and Dad (The Team Owner) are in that fighting stage before their divorce.  This phase is most upsetting for the Kids (The Team).  Mom says Dad made him make RG111 go out to play last season even though the other kids wanted to bust his knee right off his leg.  This is a shit show from locker room to field.  Still, I’ll take Atlanta.

San Francisco over Tampa Bay

Tampa has done better over the last few weeks but the combo of Kaepernick and the 49rs offense should be able to hold them at bay (couldn’t help that one).

Seattle Seahawks over New York Giants

Seattle’s loss to San Fran last week might still be stinging Russell Wilson and his merry bunch of men.  The Giants are capable of messing up on the road AND at home.

Cleveland Browns over Chicago Bears

Giving Cleveland the home advantage on this one.  Chicago has had some trouble on the road and even though that’s not a real good reason to suggest any team should win or lose, sometimes it’s just enough.

Indianapolis Colts over Houston Texans

Yeah…nuff said.

Jacksonville over Buffalo

Jacksonville at home … Buffalo not at home.  The Jaguars have waited pretty far into the season to start pulling it out of the crack of their ass … and I hope that there’s more stuck up there.

Miami Dolphins over New England

I see that the odds makers have favored New England by a much more realistic spread this time out – 2.5 instead of 11.5.  The question on everyone’s mind of course is how much will Gronkowski be missed by Brady?  And can they do it without him.  I like Miami.

Philly over Minnesota

Minnesota is at home but Peterson and Gerhart are hurting.  Philly has been burning up fields lately and there’s no real reason to not suspect they’ll do the same in Minnesota this week.

Carolina Panthers over the New York Jets

Carolina’s Cam wore the towel before their loss to New Orleans was finalized.  (I don’t know why he does this but it looks ridiculous.) They’ll be eager to redeem themselves before a hometown crowd and this should be a grind out win for the Panthers against the all over the place but consistently shitty on the road Jets.

Kansas City over Oakland Raiders

There is no known reason why Kansas cannot win this game.  That’s all I’ve got.

Arizona Cardinals over Tennessee Titans

Arizona wants this win in the worst way … the way that means they’ll do whatever it takes to get it.

New Orleans Saints over St. Louis Rams

St. Louis will have to overrun the Saints defensive line (unlikely) and shut down Brees’ air play … not to be confused with air balls (also unlikely).  Not the same thing at all.  Although this might seem like a sure thing it’s more likely to be a hard fought win … but one for The Saints.

Dallas Cowboys over Green Bay Packers

Green Bay’s Rodgers will still be photo bombing on the sidelines and Dallas at home should be able to wrap this one up as a win.

Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers Photobombing

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals

Statistically the Bengals should take the Steelers, but emotions suggest that Pittsburgh doesn’t want to finish their division closer to the bottom than the top.  Expect a hardscrabble fight to the finish and it’s anyone’s game – hopefully it’ll belong to the Steelers.

Detroit Lions over Baltimore Ravens

Detroit for some reason is not a team I get to watch more than once (maybe twice) a season here in Ontario, and that being mid-day on American Thanksgiving.  That this is the Monday Night game is a bonus …that it’s the Monday Night game is a pain in my Tuesday morning.  Baltimore has won their last 3 on their own home field but of their total wins this season only one was an away game in Miami.  Detroit can take this game on home field. They score more and let less in which when you dumb the whole thing down is in fact the magic formula.

Tight Pants & Leather Balls

NFL WEEK 14 … THE REST OF THE GAMES

NFL WEEK 14

No I didn’t get the Thursday Night Game – Houston did not beat Jacksonville – Houston didn’t do much of anything at all.  They did fire Coach Kubiak though.  No doubt only the first of several coaches that will be walking the unemployment line instead of the sideline by season’s end.

Win Loss record going in this week is 110 – 82 and I’m not saying I really will do this, but if I can’t pull it out this week I might as well watch Oprah’s Master Class on Sunday Night instead of the Atlanta / Green Bay game.

Let us begin:

Kansas over Washington

(Chiefs and Redskins – both of these teams need to do something about that)  RG111 has been having a hard time keeping it real this season but to his credit he’s still trying out there, even though at times it seems cautious.  Both on the low scoring side but Kansas does have a better D … AKA in this case as actually having a D.

Baltimore Ravens over Minnesota Vikings

Baltimore is good at home and Minnesota has only won at home (or in London, England).  Adrian Peterson is giving it everything he’s got but he can’t win on his own.

New England over Cleveland

New England can take this but if it’s by the large point spread suggested by odds makers remains to be seen.

Oakland Raiders over The New York Jets

Oakland can pull it out of their *ss crack when they have to.  The Jets will need more than a home field advantage to pull this out of their *ss crack.

Cincinnati over Indy

Indy has beat formidable opponents but more often than not they do that at home. Cinci on the other hand hasn’t lost at home.

New Orleans over Carolina

No, I’m not riding the Newton train on this one.  I expect that New Orleans has recovered and regrouped from that routing they experienced in Seattle last week.  These two are effectively tied for the AFC South and it’s not whether Carolina can win but whether New Orleans is willing to give that win up.  I suspect not.

Detroit over Philly

Detroit has lost to teams better than Philly has beat.  Does that make sense to you?  It makes sense to me and speaks to a level of play.  Detroit can beat a good team and Philly can beat crap teams.  Now does it make sense?   We’ll see.  If Stafford and Johnson can get their groove on down the field then Detroit can beat Philly too.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Miami Dolphins

Another spread on this game that suggests it’s anyone’s game to win and the only expected edge Pittsburgh has is home field advantage.  I’ll take that.

Tampa Bay over Buffalo

Against my own advice to myself I took Buffalo to win last week – and they did not.  As above, home field is the only advantage that Tampa Bay has.  And as above, I’ll take that too.

Mayor Rob Ford at Atlanta Buffalo NFL game

Toronto Mayor Rob Ford enjoying a wing or two  at the Atlanta Buffalo Game in Toronto last week…and apparently in a seat that wasn’t really his to take.  

Denver Broncos over Tennessee Titans

Why are we talking about this?

Arizona Cardinals over St. Louis

Arizona is just plain old playing better.  Nuff said.

San Diego over the New York Giants

Yes Eli and the big boys have improved of late but does beating Washington and Green Bay reflect their ability to knock it out on the field against a stronger (than GB & Wash) team.  You certainly couldn’t say that the Chargers are consistent with anything and they have been all over the place.  This week, seeing as how they’re in their own place, I’ll take them over the Giants.

Seattle Seahawks over San Francisco

Seattle has clinched a play off spot.  If Monday’s shellacking of the Saints is any indication then this team doesn’t have an “off” switch to ease off on playing hard to minimize injury or the chance of injury to their most important players.  This is also a battle of the new generation of QBs and too think that Kaepernick might not be bothered at all by Wilson’s recent elevation to QB Demi-God would be unwise.  Yes, San Fran is good at home but Seattle appears to be just plain old good everywhere they go and neither of these QBs or Teams wants to give an inch.  Going with Seattle.

Eyebrow to Eyebrow in Week 2 but it's a little more serious this time round...

Eyebrow to Eyebrow in Week 2 but it’s a little more serious this time round…

Green Bay over Atlanta

Rodgers is still out but willing to take a chance on them at home.  Atlanta has only won at home … but this week they’re not.

Chicago over Dallas

Taking Chicago at home – if they come out hard and keep it up they can take Dallas.  I say keep it up because Dallas tends to come on strong later in the game.  I know this because I often think I’ve got them in the bag as losing … and then they freaking win.  Chicago has my vote here and I hope there’s a stiff wind off the lake it’s cold enough to freeze the nuts off a squirrel.  I think that would help Da Bears just enough to get it done.

TP&LB

NFL WEEK 13 THANKSGIVING THURSDAY GAMES

NFL WEEK 13 THURSDAY NIGHT GAMES 

I’ve never read any of the big official game pickers come out and say they sucked the previous week – but I’m going to own that.  5-9.  Dreadful – still if there’s a time to get that SHIT WEEK in it’s now, before I need the big score at season’s end.

American Thanksgiving gives us 3 games and they really need to mix these up a bit and give us other teams to watch…unless it’s tradition like that ridiculous 4-6 legged turkey the NFL commentators gnaw on after the show.

Season record 102-74

Detroit over Green Bay

Green Bay’s QB is trying to fill Rodger’s cleats and not doing too badly and Detroit of late has been just missing the mark, admittedly that mark is all over the field.  A loss at home to Tampa last week should have them embarrassed enough to … do better this week.  These two are pretty well matched statistically and being at home is an advantage to Detroit.  Taking Detroit.

Dallas over Oakland

Very troublesome.  Dallas’ advantage is in their scoring game having racked up 100 more points for the season.  Defensively they’re within 20.  Taking Dallas.

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

This will be a hard fought divisional battle.  They’re both 5-6. Baltimore wins in the D department and rushing a few extra yards. Pittsburgh has Baltimore on passing and total yards per game.  It’s going to be an Any Given Sunday kind of night and hopefully end in Baltimore’s favor.

NFL WEEK 9 PICKS AND PANS

NFL WEEK 9 PICKS AND PANS

I know I’m late putting these up but in my own defence I haven’t even turned on the TV yet to watch a game and then I was doubly distracted by MikeMajor9’s post at his Toronto@home blog about the epidemic of men sending pics of their johnsons.  He’s very funny.

I know what you’re thinking – it’s easy to call a race when the horses have already left the gate…. but I did these two days ago and this season has proven that it doesn’t matter who’s winning at any point in any game.  The outcome is a mystery till the final whistle.

Win loss record is 70-50

I took Cincinnati in the Thursday game and Miami beat them by 2.

Carolina Panthers over Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta hasn’t won on the road yet and their D is dismal.  Carolina is improving or maybe Cam’s rediscovering his groove on the field.

Dallas Cowboys over Minnesota Vikings

Dallas should win this game – points wise For and Against they are almost complete opposites – maybe they’ll cancel each other out.

New York Jets over Saint Louis

Because I prefer the Jets.

St. Louis over Tennessee

Tennessee is one low scoring team.  You have to score, more than the other guys, to win a game.

Kansas City Chiefs over Buffalo

Kansas City, by their record, has a stellar D, Buffalo not so much.  Buffalo is a hurting team.  On a clear day I can see Buffalo across Lake Ontario, it doesn’t make me like them more.

Washington over San Diego Chargers

Washington is improving their game and RG111 is just so darned likeable.

Oakland over Philly

Philly is dismal.  End of story.

Seattle Seahawks over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Even though they seemed to struggle against St. Lo last week (were they just messing with us?) they are better at home, they do have a good D ….and Tampa hasn’t won a game yet.  It’s unlikely they’ll do that in Seattle.

Cleveland Browns over Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland lost to Baltimore in Week 2 and it’s anyone’s guess if that’ll happen again. Their win loss records are essentially the same.  Could be a shit show, could be a blow out… could be a game not even worth watching.  So, Cleveland at home it is.

New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers

Even though New England likes to dick with us all, this is still a meeting of two historically powerhouse QBs.  That they’re both a bit old and creaky now will probably do more to even the strategic play playing field, but I’m still taking Brady at home.

Indianapolis Colts over Houston

Indy is coming off a bye week and should be rested. Technically opposites stats wise (read here that the Colts’ record is basically all good and that Houston’s is not) it doesn’t promise to be a good, or exciting, or interesting game.  Will it be one of those Sunday Night Games that won’t keep you cranky on Monday cause you stayed up to watch it… probably.

Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears

Should be a no-brainer to pick Green Bay. Operative word “should”.

NFL PICKS WEEK 8

NFL PICKS WEEK 8

Win Loss = 60-47

This is one of those weeks that should be easy because most games seem so obvious.  That’s a big red flag.  Waving.  One side says “pick me”, the other says, “tricked you, you suck.

That being said, I’m going in anyway:

(picks in pink)

 

Carolina over Tampa Bay

Thursday Night – got that one.

San Fran over Jacksonville in London

British people will still not get American Football after this one.  Ex-Pats might have some ‘splaining to do.

Detroit over Dallas

Megatron and Reggie Bush have their work cut out for them on home field.  Dallas can be a trial for many teams.  Actually in the pool I’m in I don’t have the balls to pick this one so I’m boxing it.  It should be a fight – maybe a few fist fights as well.

Philly over the New York Giants

Both unpredictable teams that are never consistently off or on – taking Philly at home and hopefully Vick propelled.

Kansas City Chiefs over Cleveland

It’s hard to get past the Kansas D even though they’ve used it to stop less than stellar opponents.  Cleveland is going to have to try really really hard.

New Orleans Saints over Buffalo

You know I’m taking the Saints

New England over Miami

This is a long time rivalry, Miami has trouble against the Patriots and Tom Brady, despite that fact that he’s just bought a very cool New York condo, is probably supremely pissed about losing to the Jets last week.

Cincinnati over The New York Jets

Cinci hasn’t lost at home yet and The Jets have managed to lose every other game – on that scientifically gathered data, I’m taking The Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers over Oakland Raiders

Both AFC both need the game – Pittsburgh always needs it more. Game should be low scoring and Oakland can win at home against a crap team.  Pittsburgh has been improving – AKA – getting their shit game together – of late so on the winds of possibility it’s the Steelers

Denver Broncos over Washington

Will Peyton Manning lose to another rookie QB (compared to him they’re almost all rookies)?  Two weeks in a row?  At home?  I think not.

Atlanta Falcons over Arizona Cardinals

Even a psychic couldn’t pick this one with any certainty.  A psycho perhaps, but I am neither, certainly not on the same day anyway.

Green Bay Packers over Minnesota

Minnesota have lost the plot.  I’ll leave it at that.

Seattle Seahawks over St. Louis Rams

Seattle is just a better team.  Period. I hope.