NFL WEEK 16 PICKS …trickier than it seems

NFL WEEK 16 PICKS

Things are getting trickier to pick.  Early on in any season it’s brawn and just plain old wanting to win that fuels the competitiveness. Yes, everything counts towards a playoff spot but right about now things get complicated because getting there can sit in the balance with who loses to whom as important as who wins against who.  This week there are only 3 games that don’t have playoff implications: Browns & Jets, Titans & Jaguars, and the Buccaneers & Rams.  You can find the ins & outs on line but you have to be a mathematician to figure that shit out… which I’m not, having dropped math in Grade 9 … cause you could in those days 🙂

My selfish fears this week are that the power will go out at 1pm with this southern Ontario ice storm … thank you Texas, or that the only games available for viewing will be a combo of the 3 games that really don’t matter.

Last week: 9 and 7

Year totals: 130 and 94

Miami Dolphins over Buffalo Bills

Beyond my oft-expressed hatred of Buffalo, statistically these two are well matched.  Miami might have to have their skates on to play in this weather and sitting in that open venue in Buffalo today won’t be an easy thing but Miami has beaten stiffer competition both on and off the road.

Carolina over New Orleans Saints

Carolina has not lost at home since Week 1 and the New Orleans road game has room for improvement.  They’re as much as tied for the NFC South and this is Newton’s chance to really show us what he’s got … or to go home with a towel on his head.  Who would choose to do that?

Dallas Cowboys over Washington

The disruptive drama that is the Redskins continues.  Dallas needs this game and they’ll be coming to Washington to get it.  The home team here left the building some time ago and despite their renewed efforts with Cousins, it’s still a case of too little too late.

St. Louis over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

St. Louis sits at the bottom of the NFC West and Tampa’s not sitting much better over in the NFC South, which is why this game is one of the no one cares games. St. Louis runs very hot and cold but one really does have to give them the home team advantage.

New York Jets over Cleveland Browns

(Another change the channel game)  Cleveland is very capable of losing by mere points and at the same time have scored 100 more points than the Jets for the season.  Defensively they’re pretty close. I’m taking the Jets because they’re very capable of pulling an unlikely upset out of their pockets.  They’re minimally favored at home and because that’s all this game has to offer … I’ll take it.

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Based on the Kansas D, I’m going with them.  Do think though that it’ll be a hard fought game … Indy’s not going to lay down and take it.

Cincinnati Bengals over Minnesota

I like Cincie and I like them more at home.  Peterson is reported to being playing for the Vikings but it’s their D that’s the problem, and they’re not, or haven’t been, 2 in a row winners.  Cincie is finishing the season with 2 home games and the home crowd should carry them the distance they need to go.

Denver Broncos over Houston Texans

Denver does throw a shoe on occasion and ends up on the wrong end of an upset … but to Houston for cripes sake?

Jacksonville over Tennessee

Not a question of who’s better, but one of who’s worse.  This is the kind of game that will fuck up your pick card.  Taking Jax @ home just because I have to pick someone to win.

Seattle Seahawks over Arizona

The noise machine that is Seattle at home should kick into gear … I think I can hear them now … from here.  This is the first of Seattle’s season ending home game schedule and Arizona might want to this game but they’re not going to get it.

Detroit Lions over the New York Giants

Stafford has just been declared the most undisciplined QB in the league… and the Lions as out of control as a whole for their often own play ending penalties and questionable coaching plays.  Oh, the Motor City, every one’s a critic.  But it’s The Giants for Christmas sake.

San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders

These 2 are at the bottom and the bottom bottom of the AFC West. San Diego should still be up over their surprise win (I was surprised) in Denver last week.

Green Bay Packers over Pittsburgh Steelers

The answer to will he or won’t he play is that he won’t.  Still taking Green Bay @ home.

Baltimore over New England

New England has been struggling of late and they struggle more on the road.  Their wins in December have been by points against both Houston and Cleveland, which are not powerhouse teams to begin with.  Gronkowski is missed, no doubt about that.  Baltimore does the same thing points wise the key here is that they score less but they stop more.

Philly over Chicago

Philly wants and needs this and Chicago wants and needs this. Chicago can win, and has won on the road but they are more inclined to lose traveling.  Philly is favored here by the standard 3-point home advantage gift … and sometimes that’s all you need to get it done.  Hopefully that’s what they’ll do.

San Francisco 49rs over Atlanta

Will San Francisco lose = no.  Will they win by 12 = no.  I’m just putting that out there.

Tight Pants and Leather Balls

 

NFL WEEK 14 … THE REST OF THE GAMES

NFL WEEK 14

No I didn’t get the Thursday Night Game – Houston did not beat Jacksonville – Houston didn’t do much of anything at all.  They did fire Coach Kubiak though.  No doubt only the first of several coaches that will be walking the unemployment line instead of the sideline by season’s end.

Win Loss record going in this week is 110 – 82 and I’m not saying I really will do this, but if I can’t pull it out this week I might as well watch Oprah’s Master Class on Sunday Night instead of the Atlanta / Green Bay game.

Let us begin:

Kansas over Washington

(Chiefs and Redskins – both of these teams need to do something about that)  RG111 has been having a hard time keeping it real this season but to his credit he’s still trying out there, even though at times it seems cautious.  Both on the low scoring side but Kansas does have a better D … AKA in this case as actually having a D.

Baltimore Ravens over Minnesota Vikings

Baltimore is good at home and Minnesota has only won at home (or in London, England).  Adrian Peterson is giving it everything he’s got but he can’t win on his own.

New England over Cleveland

New England can take this but if it’s by the large point spread suggested by odds makers remains to be seen.

Oakland Raiders over The New York Jets

Oakland can pull it out of their *ss crack when they have to.  The Jets will need more than a home field advantage to pull this out of their *ss crack.

Cincinnati over Indy

Indy has beat formidable opponents but more often than not they do that at home. Cinci on the other hand hasn’t lost at home.

New Orleans over Carolina

No, I’m not riding the Newton train on this one.  I expect that New Orleans has recovered and regrouped from that routing they experienced in Seattle last week.  These two are effectively tied for the AFC South and it’s not whether Carolina can win but whether New Orleans is willing to give that win up.  I suspect not.

Detroit over Philly

Detroit has lost to teams better than Philly has beat.  Does that make sense to you?  It makes sense to me and speaks to a level of play.  Detroit can beat a good team and Philly can beat crap teams.  Now does it make sense?   We’ll see.  If Stafford and Johnson can get their groove on down the field then Detroit can beat Philly too.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Miami Dolphins

Another spread on this game that suggests it’s anyone’s game to win and the only expected edge Pittsburgh has is home field advantage.  I’ll take that.

Tampa Bay over Buffalo

Against my own advice to myself I took Buffalo to win last week – and they did not.  As above, home field is the only advantage that Tampa Bay has.  And as above, I’ll take that too.

Mayor Rob Ford at Atlanta Buffalo NFL game

Toronto Mayor Rob Ford enjoying a wing or two  at the Atlanta Buffalo Game in Toronto last week…and apparently in a seat that wasn’t really his to take.  

Denver Broncos over Tennessee Titans

Why are we talking about this?

Arizona Cardinals over St. Louis

Arizona is just plain old playing better.  Nuff said.

San Diego over the New York Giants

Yes Eli and the big boys have improved of late but does beating Washington and Green Bay reflect their ability to knock it out on the field against a stronger (than GB & Wash) team.  You certainly couldn’t say that the Chargers are consistent with anything and they have been all over the place.  This week, seeing as how they’re in their own place, I’ll take them over the Giants.

Seattle Seahawks over San Francisco

Seattle has clinched a play off spot.  If Monday’s shellacking of the Saints is any indication then this team doesn’t have an “off” switch to ease off on playing hard to minimize injury or the chance of injury to their most important players.  This is also a battle of the new generation of QBs and too think that Kaepernick might not be bothered at all by Wilson’s recent elevation to QB Demi-God would be unwise.  Yes, San Fran is good at home but Seattle appears to be just plain old good everywhere they go and neither of these QBs or Teams wants to give an inch.  Going with Seattle.

Eyebrow to Eyebrow in Week 2 but it's a little more serious this time round...

Eyebrow to Eyebrow in Week 2 but it’s a little more serious this time round…

Green Bay over Atlanta

Rodgers is still out but willing to take a chance on them at home.  Atlanta has only won at home … but this week they’re not.

Chicago over Dallas

Taking Chicago at home – if they come out hard and keep it up they can take Dallas.  I say keep it up because Dallas tends to come on strong later in the game.  I know this because I often think I’ve got them in the bag as losing … and then they freaking win.  Chicago has my vote here and I hope there’s a stiff wind off the lake it’s cold enough to freeze the nuts off a squirrel.  I think that would help Da Bears just enough to get it done.

TP&LB

NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Denver vs New England

Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady NFL Sunday Night

If I thought …and I do mean IF I thought, Tom Brady could in fact play an entire game with his Dexter Game Face on, then that’d really be something to watch.  A real clash of legendary QB’s.  I’d stay up late on a Sunday night, I’d tape Boardwalk Empire, turn off all the ringers, get a glass of red and settle in to watch the on-field fight.  But I don’t think that, and I do think that this Sunday Night Football Promo

Tom Brady as Dexter

is overly optimistic at best.  In fact, as a Dexter fan I’d say it’d make me think Tom and his Patriots are not going to come out on top because the Dexter Finale was freaking lame. Dexter didn’t win — he lost everything.

As a side note — if Brady & company played the whole game against Carolina as they did in the final minute then maybe they’d have won.  That last call was …. odd.  We’ll leave it at that but the reasoning that it’s not a penalty because the NE receiver didn’t have a chance of catching the ball ….? No, I guess if he’s being held then he’d have no chance but he has no chance because he’s being held.  Tom was pissed.  If NE has any chance against Denver then he’s going to have to stay pissed, show up pissed, and play pissed.  For the whole game.

TP&LB

NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

If the NFL logos tie wasn’t bad enough we can now proudly say that Toronto’s Mayor has been effectively banned from a Canadian Football League game, and asked not to wear their jerseys.  Guess he could just stay home and eat p***y… seeing as how there’s plenty enough of that there.  Good grief.  But it’s Week 11 and time’s running out for teams to make the playoffs.  As often happens in the NFL, there are weak divisions and strong divisions.  It doesn’t make it easier to pick a game but it does mean that weaker teams make it to the Super Bowl and can go up against a powerhouse.  This makes for a crap final.  I don’t want to go there.

Going into WEEK 11 @ 87-60 with 8 correct last week.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Taking Tampa.  Atlanta has not won on the road yet and disappointment comes from elevated expectations of others behavior.  Therefore I do not expect them to do anything different than they already have.

The New York Jets over Buffalo

I don’t care where they play.  I’m not taking Buffalo

Detroit over Pittsburgh

All things considered and if Detroit is firing on all cylinders – they should run right over Pittsburgh.

Washington over Philly

Philly is playing better and have won their last games but those wins come over teams that are less than stellar.  Washington plays with heart and they don’t give up easily. Taking Washington

Chicago over Baltimore

If the stars align then Chicago’s ability to score should outweigh their sieve of a defensive line.  Beyond that Baltimore is quickly becoming my new Buffalo.

Cincinnati over Cleveland

Cinci is due for a win and sometimes it’s as simple as that.

Oakland over Houston

These two are equally bad – therefore I am taking the best of the badness that they collectively are and giving it to Oakland.

Arizona over Jacksonville

The only reason that Jax won that game last week is that Tennessee shit their own bed, changed the sheets at half time, and then proceeded to soil it again.  Jacksonville may be buoyed by the win but Arizona is still a better team statistically and (should) can beat them.

San Diego over Miami

San Diego for all intents and purposes is marginally better than the Fish.  Perhaps Miami can capture an honorary win with honorary players.  Take San Diego.

Seattle over Minnesota

Seattle is better at home, and Minnesota has only won at home (giving them the London game). Which they’re not.  They’re on the road in Seattle.  Case closed.

New Orleans over San Francisco

If you take a look at their win records you’ll find that yes they’ve won games but neither has shellacked a really strong contender.  San Fran struggled somewhat against Carolina last week so I’m giving this to experience and the home team.  Take New Orleans.

New York Giants over Green Bay

Giants and Eli have rallied over last few weeks while Green Bay has floundered.  This is a must win for the Giants.

Denver over Kansas

Denver has one loss this season and Kansas is sitting on Peyton’s undefeated throne.  This, I’m sure displeases him greatly.  Denver is at home and with the pissed off/wicked smart combo under a Mile High Stadium Taurus Full Moon that is Manning tonight … well I wouldn’t mess with him.  Take Denver.

New England over Carolina

Tom Brady doesn’t have nearly the edginess of Peyton’s game face but he surely doesn’t want to lose to a still wet behind the ears Cam Newton.

MAYBE TOM

 tom brady crying

could do less of this and more of this

peyton manning mad facewhich will result in more of this

cam newton with towel on headTake New England

TP&LB

 

 

NFL WEEK 10 PICKS… OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT

WEEK 10

Freaking genius move on my part taking Minnesota in the Thursday Game.  I hope I haven’t peaked too early.  🙂

 

Going into Week 10 with a 79-54 record (not including Thursday)

Week 10 brings us some difficult games to pick… most times what seems most obvious is the hard choice.  Most disconcerting while checking rushing, passing and other stats (like I really know what they mean) was finding our illustrious and alleged crack head Mayor, Rob Ford on NFL. Com., for wearing an NFL novelty tie during his “yes I did it” news conference.  Here’s the link:

Toronto Mayor Rob Ford NFL Logo Tie 

Onward and upward: 

Tennessee Titans over Jacksonville

If I only had a football team to pick from.  But I don’t so I’ll just take Tennessee at home. 

Green Bay Packers over Philly

Whose record is real here?  I’m hoping that Green Bay will be pissed off still from losing to Chicago last week and pound the living snot out of Philly. 

Pittsburgh over Buffalo

I loathe them both.  They both play to within points of whoever else they’re playing which makes it difficult for you point spread pickers out there. 

NY Giants over Oakland

Even though they are both improving teams, Oakland has not won on the road yet.  That The Giants are 7 point faves surprises me a bit because neither team are point scorers.  Oakland’s got a pretty good D so how Eli and the not so giant Giants are going to beat them by more than 7 remains to be seen.

Indianapolis Colts over St. Louis Rams

St. Louis can’t score … certainly not with any consistency and Indy has a huge defensive game. 

Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons

Seattle scores more and lets in less and they need and want this game. 

Cincinnati Bengals over Baltimore Ravens

This one is there for the taking.  But by who? Cinci can take it on the road and win.  I don’t think it’ll be a big points game and if it is, both teams will be scoring.  Cinci has won 3 by 3, lost 1 by 2 and 1 by 3.  Baltimore has lost 2 by 3 and 1 by 2.  I’m taking Cinci because I like them more. 

Chicago over Detroit Lions

Chicago is the better team at home and Detroit has lost half their road games.  In my world of mathematics that makes Chicago the better team.  I can’t explain it any better than that. 

Carolina Panthers over San Francisco 49rs

San Fran is good at home and they do have a good defensive record.  Thing is that both have beat shit teams to get their respective win records.  San Fran is coming off a bye week, but Cam and Carolina are on a roll.  These are two still wet behind the ears QBs with something to prove. 

Arizona over Houston

Arizona at home.  I had a good reason but it escapes me now.  It must have bored me as much as the prospect of this game does.

San Diego Chargers over Denver Broncos

Yes, I’m taking San Diego.  Yes, Denver has a great record but they have beaten the worst teams in the league.  San Diego beat the team that beat Denver.  San Diego is at home and they want this very very very much.

New Orleans Saints over Dallas Cowboys

(finally a Sunday Night Game that looks to have some backbone to it) New Orleans is a much better (much much better) defensive team.  Tony Romo is a p***y.  That pretty much sums it up for me.

Miami over Tampa or Tampa over Miami

Tampa is the almost made it team of the year losing within 3 points twice, by 2 once and by 1 once.  So they don’t exactly play up to the level of better teams, but they do seem to keep pace…. Try to anyway.  Miami is a team in an upheaval of accusations and locker roof strife which can spill onto the field if morale has been damaged to the point of defeat.  I’m going to go out on a plank here and go with the Buccaneers.  

TP&LB

NFL WEEK 7 … who will win?

NFL WEEK 7 PICKS TO WIN

WEEK 7

Coming into Week 7 @ 52-40

Yes, I let emotion play into that Week 7 Thursday Night pick when I took Arizona over Seattle – won’t let that happen again.  Now in the grand scheme of things I’m one back.  What’s at stake here is a set of Zildjian’s … hi hats or crash or something else loud.  I’ve got my eye on a lovely tablet.  As they say, I’m not playing.  I want my tablet.  Chili in the slow cooker, laundry done, and I’m ready to watch.

New England over the Jets

These two are actually quite well matched and it should be a good game but I’m going with Brady on this one.

San Diego over Jacksonville

Jax still struggling but this could be one of those games you should have boxed but you didn’t because how could San Diego lose?

Kansas City Chiefs over Houston

Schaub is out for Houston and Kansas has a killer D.

Cincinnati Bengals over Detroit

Out on a limb here but Calvin Johnson is “probable” whatever the fuck that means in the real world.  Okay, I know what it means but even when he does play he’s either on or he’s off.  Some games he’s neither.

Miami Dolphins over Buffalo

I would take whoever else there was against Buffalo any day (we’ve been over this before). But I like the Dolphins.  They’re at home.  Ricky would take them.  I think.

Chicago over Washington

Days gone by Washington @ home would be a lock but RG111 is still getting comfortable on that knee (and I don’t blame him).  Chicago is a tough team.

Philly over Dallas

Dallas has some injuries – DeMarcus and DeMarco, Philly’s Vick is questionable.  If Vick is in then Dallas might just spend too much time trying to kick the shit out of him instead of playing.  Big Daddy Jones will be watching though…

Carolina Panthers over St. Louis Rams

Carolina has a good D and Cam Newton (when he doesn’t have that ridiculous towel on his head) seems to be getting back to business.

Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay

Just because

Tennessee Titans over San Francisco

Kaepernick is getting back up to speed and he’s throwing the ball well.  Tennessee isn’t going to give up this game lightly.

Green Bay over Cleveland Browns

Even though Green Bay has some injured players they haven’t lost at home yet.  Sometimes it’s that simple.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore

It could be argued that any team needs any game at any time, but the Steelers need this game.  Really need it.  Defensively both are pretty tough so maybe they should just stay in their own ends and kick the ball back and forth.

Denver Broncos over Indy

The Manning/Luck battle returns to the turf.  Apparently both fathers QB’d … Lucks actually for Indy.  I should know where Manning’s played but I don’t care to find out or to remember.  That was then and this is now.  There is mucho hype surrounding this game because of the return of Peyton to Indianapolis.  But isn’t this a little like going back and sleeping with your ex.  It’s not like it’s a surprise, you know it’s going to end badly for one, and everyone wants to know the details.  Can you imagine how much the networks are charging for advertising during this game?  You can show me a hundred times; I’m still not buying a fucking truck pushed by Denis Leary or Sam Elliot. In fact I’m not buying a truck period.  Show me something else… or show me the freaking game. Did I say I was taking Denver?

Monday night letdown

Taking the New York Giants over Minnesota with hopes Little Manning can play like Big Manning and he and his team can get the job done.

TP&LB

 

If Your Mom Says You Can’t Come Out to Play…

RobGronkowski

“All I can say is Robbie is dying to play. He wants to get out there,” said Diane Gronkowski, mother of the Patriots’ tight end. “He’s doing what he has to do to get back playing. He doesn’t like it. He wants to play. It really bothers him that he’s not playing.”

Diane Gronkowski indicated her son wanted to play as far back as Week 2, when the team medical staff thought he was ready to go. But Gronk hasn’t gotten back on the field because he doesn’t want to end up in the same place he was last season — in an operating room.

“The same people who criticize him for not coming back are the same people who say he came back too soon last time,” she said. “It is what it is. Rob is the only one who can make this decision. Anybody else who has a comment to make positively or negatively aren’t Rob. They aren’t in his shoes. They didn’t go through the surgeries that he went through. You can say what you want to say. Unless you’ve stood in someone’s shoes, you don’t really know the whole story.
“When they go through four arm surgeries, a back surgery, and a foot surgery in a year and a half, then they can make the comments,” she went on. “After the third (forearm) surgery, Robbie said, ‘I’m never doing this again.’ And weeks later, he’s back in for the fourth one. So he doesn’t want to go back where he was and start all over again. It wasn’t fun. It was so discouraging.”
 

Hopefully in Week 7, when New England goes to the Jets home field … the Jets won’t hand them the game in the last two minutes like the Saints did this week.