NFL WEEK 17 PICKS …. the show’s not over yet

Week 17 NFL … the show’s not over yet.

Lot’s of action still in the league as teams jockey for position in the playoffs.  Point in case is that there is not one NFC division decided.

Last week: 9-7

Season: 139-101

Carolina Panthers over Atlanta

Despite Cam Newton’s lesser show on the road he can still get it done, even if he has to run the ball himself, which he does.  Atlanta can’t get to there from there because the Panther D won’t let them.

Tennessee Titans over Houston Texans

Houston can’t score their way out of wet paper bag and even though the Titans aren’t top notch they should be able to hand Houston a loss and keep the Texans at the absolute bottom of the league.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland

Pittsburgh needs this game to stay in the race for anything.  They’ll get it as Cleveland’s record against them in Pittsburgh is a no go.  However Pittsburgh also needs the cards to fall in all the correct win loss categories throughout the league for it to actually mean anything for them.  Still, they’re not just going to give it up.

New York Giants over Washington

Washington does not have a hope in hell of making the playoffs, how well they play may be determined by how determined Cousins is to keep the play spotlight on himself.  Manning would like to end this less than stellar season with a win at home.

Cincinnati Bengals over Baltimore Ravens

Actually I just like the Bengals. They have more to gain with a win over Baltimore as they’re playing for the AFC’s No. 2 Seed; Baltimore is just trying to get an invite to the dance.   Actually, I just like the Bengals.  Did I say that already?

Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars

Indy has already clinched the Division but I don’t expect that will stop them from handing the Jaguars their final loss of the season.

Miami Dolphins over the New York Jets

This should be a hard fought battle.  Miami needs the win and Baltimore to lose to get in on the post-season fun.  The Jets don’t do so well on the road…

Minnesota Vikings over Detroit Lions

Despite the Lions dismal display of on and off field team togetherness they’ve somehow managed to hold on to…oh, they haven’t held on to anything.  Minnesota may be without their go to guy in Peterson and Detroit’s Megatron is questionable (at point of writing) but both of these teams have shown the ability to pull a surprise win or loss out of their collective jockstraps.  Taking Minnesota at home.

Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears

Rodgers returns to the fold and the question is whether he’ll play cautiously (a la RG111) or pull out all the stops.  I’m thinking he’s gonna give it all he’s got and all he’s got will be enough to stop The Bears in their own corner of the forest.

New England Patriots over Buffalo

This is down to a battle of the QB’s.  Brady can do it and I really hope that he doesn’t wait to the last 2 minutes of the game to actually get it done.

New Orleans Saints over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans wants and needs this game and Tampa is beyond all help.  Tampa should just let their hair down and play like they’re fighting it out in the field behind the school to see who gets to date the Head Cheerleader.  That’d be a good game to watch.

Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders

Good night Oakland.  Thank goodness this isn’t the Sunday Night game.  Doing laundry would be more entertaining.

San Diego Chargers over Kansas City

Even though Kansas looks better on paper and can win on the road, their play of late hasn’t been what we’d expect.  San Diego is hot these last few games and the fire’s not going out just yet.

It’ll be a well-fought battle to the last seconds of the game.

Seattle Seahawks over St. Louis

Seattle is still smarting from their loss at home last week to Arizona, but not enough to lose focus and lose this one as well.

Dallas Cowboys over Philly

It’s the end of the season and I don’t have anything to lose with taking the hapless Cowboys over Philly.  I’m not a Romo fan neither do I subscribe to the premise that a team is based solely on the strength of one man. Dallas at home it is.

Tight Pants & Leather Balls

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NFL WEEK 14 … THE REST OF THE GAMES

NFL WEEK 14

No I didn’t get the Thursday Night Game – Houston did not beat Jacksonville – Houston didn’t do much of anything at all.  They did fire Coach Kubiak though.  No doubt only the first of several coaches that will be walking the unemployment line instead of the sideline by season’s end.

Win Loss record going in this week is 110 – 82 and I’m not saying I really will do this, but if I can’t pull it out this week I might as well watch Oprah’s Master Class on Sunday Night instead of the Atlanta / Green Bay game.

Let us begin:

Kansas over Washington

(Chiefs and Redskins – both of these teams need to do something about that)  RG111 has been having a hard time keeping it real this season but to his credit he’s still trying out there, even though at times it seems cautious.  Both on the low scoring side but Kansas does have a better D … AKA in this case as actually having a D.

Baltimore Ravens over Minnesota Vikings

Baltimore is good at home and Minnesota has only won at home (or in London, England).  Adrian Peterson is giving it everything he’s got but he can’t win on his own.

New England over Cleveland

New England can take this but if it’s by the large point spread suggested by odds makers remains to be seen.

Oakland Raiders over The New York Jets

Oakland can pull it out of their *ss crack when they have to.  The Jets will need more than a home field advantage to pull this out of their *ss crack.

Cincinnati over Indy

Indy has beat formidable opponents but more often than not they do that at home. Cinci on the other hand hasn’t lost at home.

New Orleans over Carolina

No, I’m not riding the Newton train on this one.  I expect that New Orleans has recovered and regrouped from that routing they experienced in Seattle last week.  These two are effectively tied for the AFC South and it’s not whether Carolina can win but whether New Orleans is willing to give that win up.  I suspect not.

Detroit over Philly

Detroit has lost to teams better than Philly has beat.  Does that make sense to you?  It makes sense to me and speaks to a level of play.  Detroit can beat a good team and Philly can beat crap teams.  Now does it make sense?   We’ll see.  If Stafford and Johnson can get their groove on down the field then Detroit can beat Philly too.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Miami Dolphins

Another spread on this game that suggests it’s anyone’s game to win and the only expected edge Pittsburgh has is home field advantage.  I’ll take that.

Tampa Bay over Buffalo

Against my own advice to myself I took Buffalo to win last week – and they did not.  As above, home field is the only advantage that Tampa Bay has.  And as above, I’ll take that too.

Mayor Rob Ford at Atlanta Buffalo NFL game

Toronto Mayor Rob Ford enjoying a wing or two  at the Atlanta Buffalo Game in Toronto last week…and apparently in a seat that wasn’t really his to take.  

Denver Broncos over Tennessee Titans

Why are we talking about this?

Arizona Cardinals over St. Louis

Arizona is just plain old playing better.  Nuff said.

San Diego over the New York Giants

Yes Eli and the big boys have improved of late but does beating Washington and Green Bay reflect their ability to knock it out on the field against a stronger (than GB & Wash) team.  You certainly couldn’t say that the Chargers are consistent with anything and they have been all over the place.  This week, seeing as how they’re in their own place, I’ll take them over the Giants.

Seattle Seahawks over San Francisco

Seattle has clinched a play off spot.  If Monday’s shellacking of the Saints is any indication then this team doesn’t have an “off” switch to ease off on playing hard to minimize injury or the chance of injury to their most important players.  This is also a battle of the new generation of QBs and too think that Kaepernick might not be bothered at all by Wilson’s recent elevation to QB Demi-God would be unwise.  Yes, San Fran is good at home but Seattle appears to be just plain old good everywhere they go and neither of these QBs or Teams wants to give an inch.  Going with Seattle.

Eyebrow to Eyebrow in Week 2 but it's a little more serious this time round...

Eyebrow to Eyebrow in Week 2 but it’s a little more serious this time round…

Green Bay over Atlanta

Rodgers is still out but willing to take a chance on them at home.  Atlanta has only won at home … but this week they’re not.

Chicago over Dallas

Taking Chicago at home – if they come out hard and keep it up they can take Dallas.  I say keep it up because Dallas tends to come on strong later in the game.  I know this because I often think I’ve got them in the bag as losing … and then they freaking win.  Chicago has my vote here and I hope there’s a stiff wind off the lake it’s cold enough to freeze the nuts off a squirrel.  I think that would help Da Bears just enough to get it done.

TP&LB

NFL WEEK 13 THANKSGIVING THURSDAY GAMES

NFL WEEK 13 THURSDAY NIGHT GAMES 

I’ve never read any of the big official game pickers come out and say they sucked the previous week – but I’m going to own that.  5-9.  Dreadful – still if there’s a time to get that SHIT WEEK in it’s now, before I need the big score at season’s end.

American Thanksgiving gives us 3 games and they really need to mix these up a bit and give us other teams to watch…unless it’s tradition like that ridiculous 4-6 legged turkey the NFL commentators gnaw on after the show.

Season record 102-74

Detroit over Green Bay

Green Bay’s QB is trying to fill Rodger’s cleats and not doing too badly and Detroit of late has been just missing the mark, admittedly that mark is all over the field.  A loss at home to Tampa last week should have them embarrassed enough to … do better this week.  These two are pretty well matched statistically and being at home is an advantage to Detroit.  Taking Detroit.

Dallas over Oakland

Very troublesome.  Dallas’ advantage is in their scoring game having racked up 100 more points for the season.  Defensively they’re within 20.  Taking Dallas.

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

This will be a hard fought divisional battle.  They’re both 5-6. Baltimore wins in the D department and rushing a few extra yards. Pittsburgh has Baltimore on passing and total yards per game.  It’s going to be an Any Given Sunday kind of night and hopefully end in Baltimore’s favor.

NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

If the NFL logos tie wasn’t bad enough we can now proudly say that Toronto’s Mayor has been effectively banned from a Canadian Football League game, and asked not to wear their jerseys.  Guess he could just stay home and eat p***y… seeing as how there’s plenty enough of that there.  Good grief.  But it’s Week 11 and time’s running out for teams to make the playoffs.  As often happens in the NFL, there are weak divisions and strong divisions.  It doesn’t make it easier to pick a game but it does mean that weaker teams make it to the Super Bowl and can go up against a powerhouse.  This makes for a crap final.  I don’t want to go there.

Going into WEEK 11 @ 87-60 with 8 correct last week.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Taking Tampa.  Atlanta has not won on the road yet and disappointment comes from elevated expectations of others behavior.  Therefore I do not expect them to do anything different than they already have.

The New York Jets over Buffalo

I don’t care where they play.  I’m not taking Buffalo

Detroit over Pittsburgh

All things considered and if Detroit is firing on all cylinders – they should run right over Pittsburgh.

Washington over Philly

Philly is playing better and have won their last games but those wins come over teams that are less than stellar.  Washington plays with heart and they don’t give up easily. Taking Washington

Chicago over Baltimore

If the stars align then Chicago’s ability to score should outweigh their sieve of a defensive line.  Beyond that Baltimore is quickly becoming my new Buffalo.

Cincinnati over Cleveland

Cinci is due for a win and sometimes it’s as simple as that.

Oakland over Houston

These two are equally bad – therefore I am taking the best of the badness that they collectively are and giving it to Oakland.

Arizona over Jacksonville

The only reason that Jax won that game last week is that Tennessee shit their own bed, changed the sheets at half time, and then proceeded to soil it again.  Jacksonville may be buoyed by the win but Arizona is still a better team statistically and (should) can beat them.

San Diego over Miami

San Diego for all intents and purposes is marginally better than the Fish.  Perhaps Miami can capture an honorary win with honorary players.  Take San Diego.

Seattle over Minnesota

Seattle is better at home, and Minnesota has only won at home (giving them the London game). Which they’re not.  They’re on the road in Seattle.  Case closed.

New Orleans over San Francisco

If you take a look at their win records you’ll find that yes they’ve won games but neither has shellacked a really strong contender.  San Fran struggled somewhat against Carolina last week so I’m giving this to experience and the home team.  Take New Orleans.

New York Giants over Green Bay

Giants and Eli have rallied over last few weeks while Green Bay has floundered.  This is a must win for the Giants.

Denver over Kansas

Denver has one loss this season and Kansas is sitting on Peyton’s undefeated throne.  This, I’m sure displeases him greatly.  Denver is at home and with the pissed off/wicked smart combo under a Mile High Stadium Taurus Full Moon that is Manning tonight … well I wouldn’t mess with him.  Take Denver.

New England over Carolina

Tom Brady doesn’t have nearly the edginess of Peyton’s game face but he surely doesn’t want to lose to a still wet behind the ears Cam Newton.

MAYBE TOM

 tom brady crying

could do less of this and more of this

peyton manning mad facewhich will result in more of this

cam newton with towel on headTake New England

TP&LB

 

 

NFL WEEK 10 PICKS… OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT

WEEK 10

Freaking genius move on my part taking Minnesota in the Thursday Game.  I hope I haven’t peaked too early.  🙂

 

Going into Week 10 with a 79-54 record (not including Thursday)

Week 10 brings us some difficult games to pick… most times what seems most obvious is the hard choice.  Most disconcerting while checking rushing, passing and other stats (like I really know what they mean) was finding our illustrious and alleged crack head Mayor, Rob Ford on NFL. Com., for wearing an NFL novelty tie during his “yes I did it” news conference.  Here’s the link:

Toronto Mayor Rob Ford NFL Logo Tie 

Onward and upward: 

Tennessee Titans over Jacksonville

If I only had a football team to pick from.  But I don’t so I’ll just take Tennessee at home. 

Green Bay Packers over Philly

Whose record is real here?  I’m hoping that Green Bay will be pissed off still from losing to Chicago last week and pound the living snot out of Philly. 

Pittsburgh over Buffalo

I loathe them both.  They both play to within points of whoever else they’re playing which makes it difficult for you point spread pickers out there. 

NY Giants over Oakland

Even though they are both improving teams, Oakland has not won on the road yet.  That The Giants are 7 point faves surprises me a bit because neither team are point scorers.  Oakland’s got a pretty good D so how Eli and the not so giant Giants are going to beat them by more than 7 remains to be seen.

Indianapolis Colts over St. Louis Rams

St. Louis can’t score … certainly not with any consistency and Indy has a huge defensive game. 

Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons

Seattle scores more and lets in less and they need and want this game. 

Cincinnati Bengals over Baltimore Ravens

This one is there for the taking.  But by who? Cinci can take it on the road and win.  I don’t think it’ll be a big points game and if it is, both teams will be scoring.  Cinci has won 3 by 3, lost 1 by 2 and 1 by 3.  Baltimore has lost 2 by 3 and 1 by 2.  I’m taking Cinci because I like them more. 

Chicago over Detroit Lions

Chicago is the better team at home and Detroit has lost half their road games.  In my world of mathematics that makes Chicago the better team.  I can’t explain it any better than that. 

Carolina Panthers over San Francisco 49rs

San Fran is good at home and they do have a good defensive record.  Thing is that both have beat shit teams to get their respective win records.  San Fran is coming off a bye week, but Cam and Carolina are on a roll.  These are two still wet behind the ears QBs with something to prove. 

Arizona over Houston

Arizona at home.  I had a good reason but it escapes me now.  It must have bored me as much as the prospect of this game does.

San Diego Chargers over Denver Broncos

Yes, I’m taking San Diego.  Yes, Denver has a great record but they have beaten the worst teams in the league.  San Diego beat the team that beat Denver.  San Diego is at home and they want this very very very much.

New Orleans Saints over Dallas Cowboys

(finally a Sunday Night Game that looks to have some backbone to it) New Orleans is a much better (much much better) defensive team.  Tony Romo is a p***y.  That pretty much sums it up for me.

Miami over Tampa or Tampa over Miami

Tampa is the almost made it team of the year losing within 3 points twice, by 2 once and by 1 once.  So they don’t exactly play up to the level of better teams, but they do seem to keep pace…. Try to anyway.  Miami is a team in an upheaval of accusations and locker roof strife which can spill onto the field if morale has been damaged to the point of defeat.  I’m going to go out on a plank here and go with the Buccaneers.  

TP&LB

NFL … Is this Week 5?

It’s Week 5 here.

There was some upsets last week – they upset me – we’re not going to discuss them.

Going in Week 5 @ 37-26 (Mommy’s not happy with this)

Anytime spreads are 3 and under it basically means that the “experts” don’t have a clue who’s going to win – This weeks there’s 6 games in that range including a PK – might as well toss up a coin.

That being said:

New England over Cinci – it’s like a tradition.  New England isn’t immune to getting their clock cleaned but neither is Cinci liable to beat them.

Detroit over Green Bay – yes – it’s in Green Bay but I’m taking them anyway.

Indy over Seattle – Seattle and Russell Wilson are pretty hot right now just winning their 4th in a row to start a season, something that hasn’t been achieved in 400 years or something like that.  They’ve beat some crap teams to do so.

Miami over Baltimore – Miami at home.

New Orleans over Chicago – Chicago does have a good defensive line but New Orleans’ is better.

New York Giants over Philly – Between these 2 teams and the 8 games they’ve played between them – there’s been 1 win and that went to Philly.  The Giants can have this one … if they want it bad enough

Tennessee over Kansas – 2 not so good teams – as above – someone’s gonna have to win … or they could tie I suppose.

St. Louis over Jacksonville – Odds makers have give St. Louis a big spread on this one but I wouldn’t pay too much attention to it.  All things considered, they should win.

Arizona over Carolina – Just giving it to them on a home field advantage – sometimes you can’t overthink these things.

Denver over Dallas – need I explain this?

San Francisco over Houston – every week Kaepernick has more to prove – he’s kind of doing it but he needs to do it in a bigger way … on the field.

San Diego over Oakland – San Diego scores and lets points in – working in their favor is a low scoring Oakland team.

New York Jets over Atlanta – in Atlanta – sometimes you just have to live dangerously.

TP&LB